New World Disorder � Disintegration Stage Commences
The mainstream media has a new in vogue phrase and you are sure to have heard it by now � �the
rules based international order (or system)�. The Royal Institute of International Affairs
based in London, commonly known as Chatham House commented a several years ago that �Economic
and political upheavals are emboldening challengers to the rules-based international system, and
to the liberal Western values it embodies. To stay relevant, the system must address
three major flaws.�
For a system based on rules to have effect, these rules must be visibly observed by their
principal and most powerful advocates. A rules-based order must work to the advantage
of the majority and not a minority. The longevity of the current international
system may have led to the assumption that it was in some way the natural order of things,
requiring only occasional repair and defence against particular challengers.
Given recent global events it is clear that the so-called rules based order has systemically
failed to address any of these flaws. The most powerful advocates and the institutions
that support this system have made the most disastrous decisions culminating in an epic
financial crisis with austerity its ideological birth. The West flounders from one crisis
to the next, the majority disciplined for the malfeasance and lawlessness of the few
and the system is consuming itself from the inside out � a neoliberal bowel cancer with
no cure in sight.
The European Union.
With Britain�s recent EU referendum result came the realisation that the rules based
system on the continent had failed. Rising discontent is gathering at an unstoppable
pace, much to the alarm of the ruling elite. A federalised state dreamt up by America and
handed to Germany with the intention of destroying national identities, borders and sovereign
rights is slowly turning into a nightmare as the 28 nation bloc enters what can only
be described as a disintegration phase.
Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics puts it this way: �The EU intends to make it
a mistake that the British will regret and fall to their knees. This attitude is consistent
with the constant endeavour to explain all the shortcomings of the EU as insignificant
and irrelevant, thereby closing their ears and mind to any possible reform. They have
no clear statement to challenge what is going on. The regulatory nightmare and outright
rage that is rising among the people is simply ignored by Brussels. The legal uncertainty
with the British exit on the banking system is something nobody even wants to speculate
about. How do bail-ins work in Europe if abandoned in Britain? So while the EU thinks by punishing
Britain they will discourage others from leaving, they are seriously mistaken. The dream of
the EU is dead. It should have remained just a trade union � that was it.�
A recent BBC programme entitled Brexit: The Battle for Europe produced the line �the
power-brokers of Europe face an unprecedented challenge. For the EU this is a battle to
survive.� In the programme Martin Schulz, former president of the European Parliament
admitted there was a �real risk the EU will fall apart� as populism rises. Schulz has
since emerged as the Social Democrats main challenger in a desperate bid against Merkel
in Germany�s upcoming elections.
Sky News reported (11th Feb) that �Jean-Claude Juncker has expressed doubts that EU countries
will be able to maintain a united front during Brexit negotiations.� Juncker even went
on to admit that the EU project is now failing and sees disintegration going forward. He
asked:
�Has the time come for when the European Union of the 27 must show unity, cohesion
and coherence? Yes, I say yes, when it comes to Brexit but I have some justified doubts
that it will really happen.� He added: �Do the Hungarians and the Poles want exactly
the same thing as the Germans and the French?� � �I have serious doubts.�
Even the the founding architect of the monetary union, Otmar Issing has warned that the Brussels�
dream of a European superstate will finally be buried amongst the rubble of the crumbling
single currency.�Realistically, it will be a case of muddling through, struggling
from one crisis to the next. It is difficult to forecast how long this will continue for,
but it cannot go on endlessly. Governments will pile up more debt�and then one day,
the house of cards will collapse.�
The inauguration of Donald Trump heralds the arrival of a new world order � or disorder.
The West is now weaker than ever before and rising US nationalism poses a threat to the
European Union.
United States of America
What we are witnessing in America is the crisis and erosion of the international rules based
order that America constructed and maintained since the end of World War II. The US still
dominates the world in terms economic and military power, that is not under dispute,
but the challenge is that she is simply unable her to get her way and control the globalisation
project that it largely helped to create.
American world domination is not just declining, it is coming to an end. The international
liberal order is facing off against nationalism and protectionism, headed up by populist movements
� Donald Trump being the evidence that citizens have had enough, they are desperate. Both
Trump and Brexit are the result of protest votes for the masses and a stark reminder
that politician�s no longer represent the people and the people know it.
For America, the writing is on the wall. In 1990 the global south, made up of Africa,
Latin America, and developing Asia including the Middle East accounted for 30 percent of
global trade, today that figure has risen to 50 percent. Interestingly, the OECD has
predicted that by 2060, the GDP of the developing world, including China and India, would exceed
that of developed OECD and non-OECD countries: 57.7 percent to 42.3 percent. This is a big
problem for the West and its world order.
Military power is no longer just about how much firepower is available, weapon technology
is no longer the preserve of the West, cyber-warfare is becoming just as dangerous as nuclear weapons.
The rise of global terrorism has not abated and looks set to only get worse.
Traditional political power is being replaced by transnational social movements and corporations
who increasingly dominate global politics. Organisations like Facebook, Google and the
Gates Foundation disperse and erode centralised American power. Interdependence by rising
regional powers is much more likely to dominate the world order than America�s failing approach
of global coercion.
America�s traditional outlets of power such as the UN, IMF, World Bank, WHO, UNHCR and
the WTO etc are themselves waning in authority and no longer command the respect they once
had. There is a rising tide of new kids on the block. The G20 for instance comprises
of economic power houses from both North and South. China�s One Belt, One Road Program
and the Silk Road projects are supported by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank their
version of the World Bank.
The long-term structural factors and institutions that underpinned America�s global influence
are failing. The petrodollar is currently in collapse mode, NATO is being challenged
and global trade agreements are being redefined. The BRICS nations economic rise will see growth
doubling from 2010 to 2020, China alone will see its economic clout nearly treble in the
same time frame, whilst the West�s anaemic economy limps from one crisis to the next
with what is clearly turning out to be a failed neoliberal project. Capitalism is failing
because everything is rigged.
The transition from America�s vision of a rules based system that it insists on devising
and leading to a more complicated and internationally led system will be messy � dangerous even.
America sees the rise of China and Russia as a threat to its dominance. Unable to innovate,
negotiate and calmly influence its way in the 21st century, America could do the unthinkable
and attack its perceived opponents in a desperate attempt to regain control with catastrophic
repercussions.
Influential members of government, corporations and the military, are involved in the secret
manipulation or control of government policy according to many MSM outlets today
The Deep State
Once the arena of �conspiracy theorists,� now the playground of the mainstream media.
The Deep State is defined as �a body of people, typically influential members of government
agencies, corporations or the military, believed to be involved in the secret manipulation
or control of government policy.�
Glen Greenwald, interviewed by DemocracyNow said �What they�re doing instead is trying
to take maybe the only faction worse than Donald Trump, which is the deep state, the
CIA, with its histories of atrocities, and say they ought to almost engage in like a
soft coup, where they take the elected president and prevent him from enacting his policies.
And I think it is extremely dangerous to do that. Even if you�re somebody who believes
that both the CIA and the deep state, on the one hand, and the Trump presidency, on the
other, are extremely dangerous, as I do, there�s a huge difference between the two, which is
that Trump was democratically elected and is subject to democratic controls, as these
courts just demonstrated and as the media is showing, as citizens are proving. But on
the other hand, the CIA was elected by nobody. They�re barely subject to democratic controls
at all. And so, to urge that the CIA and the intelligence community empower itself to undermine
the elected branches of government is insanity.�
Britain�s own Deep State is steeped in history, effectively manipulating the global map from
days of Empire. More recently, it is evidently active. Carne Ross, ex senior British diplomat
named the �deep state� for acting to prevent public knowledge of what really happened prior
and during the run-up to the invasion of Iraq. He said �I testified last week to the Chilcot
inquiry. My experience demonstrates an emerging and dangerous problem with the process. This
is not so much a problem with Sir John Chilcot and his panel, but rather with Britain�s
own �deep state� � that is covering up its mistakes and denying access to critical
documents.�
The Deep State in Britain will be the main driver of the Brexit negotiations in the coming
months and years as it manipulates legislation in favour of unprecedented political power
focused on the drip-drip erosion of civil liberties and human rights to pave the way
for ever-increasing corporate profits and plunder that privatisation brings. Other countries
have the same problems.
In France there are upcoming elections and another populist threatens the establishment
in LePen. Diana Johnstone explains it in great detail for Global Research � �But the
pro-European Union, pro-NATO, neoliberal Establishment is at work to keep that from happening. On
every possible magazine cover or talk show, the media have shown their allegiance to a
�New! Improved!� middle of the road candidate (in Emmanuel Macron) who is being sold to
the public like a consumer product. Together, the anonymous sources of the �deep state�
and the mass corporate media have become accustomed to controlling the narrative told to the public.
They don�t want to give that power up. And they certainly don�t want to see it challenged
by outsiders�
The West is no longer governed by a properly functioning political or capitalist system.
Bush, Blair, Trump along with Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, TTIP, CETA, the global financial
crisis, tax havens, etc are all evidence of that. Tens of millions have protested, none
were heard � that is until the shock waves of disobedience reverberated in 2016, its
effects yet to unfold.
Around 95% of active climate researchers publish climate papers endorsing the consensus position.
The Petition Project features over 30,000 scientists signing the petition stating �There
is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide will, in the
forseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth�s atmosphere.
Other Global Threats
The human population is also facing a new series of perils that threatens the international
rules based system of order. If climate science is to be believed, climate change threatens
water supplies, food prices, health and global security. By 2030 water stress will affect
47 percent of humanity. It is predicted to undermine global health efforts, increase
poverty and will destroy global economic growth.
Humans and animals are increasingly sharing virulent viruses raising the risk of pandemics.
The World Health Organisation has clearly stated �Antibiotic resistance is one of
the biggest threats to global health, food security, and development today� with Antibiotic
resistance rising to dangerously high levels in all parts of the world.
Nuclear proliferation is now a real problem. Nine countries roughly control 15,000 armed
and ready-to-fire civilisation destroying weapons. There are a number of other countries
who have never declared their nuclear capabilities and more are lining up to acquire the technology.
If a nuclear weapon or dirty bomb were to fall into the hands of a rogue state � anything
could happen.
The EU, worried about Trump�s commitment to NATO and European defence are considering
their own nuclear defence system by combining Britain and France into a pan European nuclear
umbrella deterrant � no doubt controlled by Germany. That decision alone could cause
the EU to implode.
Religious and sectarian divisions continue to dominate the Middle East. The excuse is
the battle for global energy supplies which continues to rage with the resulting refugee
crisis that threatens the EU. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict raises political volatility with
global implications. Syria currently has over two-thirds of the worlds nations involved
in the fighting either directly or indirectly a single spark could escalate into an uncontrollable
inferno.
The South China Sea, Ukraine, NATO, Russia, China, Iran, Syria all pose the potential
for existential risk for millions. North Korea is rushing full on to develop a nuclear-armed
intercontinental ballistic missile that increasingly demonstrates its desire to reach the US. A
problem for every US president since the 1980�s, North Korea is now posing a real threat that
is pushing Japan into developing its own nuclear defence system. America and China need to
negotiate and put NK on a leash, but they aren�t talking either.
Disorder Not Order
Strategic manoeuvres on the global chessboard of power politics is creating a period of
transition. Everything is changing; political alliances, the global economy and its demography,
all facilitated by new game-changing technologies. A fight for resources is already underway
particularly as globalisation slowly and reluctantly withdraws in favour of regionalised re-industrialisation
and nationalism.
A new world disorder is materialising as the West�s traditional grip on the global economy
weakens. As with Ying and Yang or the global pendulum, all things exist as inseparable
and contradictory opposites. If one economy or political power base increases � it is
only at the expense of the other.
As Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations notes, such eras are often
�the most frightening periods in history.� Quoting Antonio Gramsci, Leonard points out
that; �Disorder, war, and even disease can flood into the vacuum that forms when the
old is dying and the new cannot be born.�
The truth is that the post-Cold War �American-policed security order� along with the �European-inspired
legal order� have both fractured at the same time. The really big problem is that
no real candidates to replace them have yet emerged from what looks like a long and dangerous
road ahead for us all.
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