The new year is just around the corner, and with that, a think tank in Seoul has neatly
summed up their outlook on international affairs in 2018.
It includes speculations on North Korea's missile technology and what would happen if
they were to complete it.
Our Lee Jeong-yeon reports.
With North Korea's latest test of its Hwasong-15 ICBM in November, the world was left speculating
what its next move would be.
A South Korean think tank has attempted to provide some answers.
In its report "Outlook on International Affairs for 2018," the Institute of Foreign Affairs
and National Security says the biggest task left for the regime is to perfect its missile
technology, with the remaining part being re-entry technology.
(Kor) A successful missile launch must have three
things: launch trajectory, position control, and re-entry.
North Korea's missiles currently have the first two, but not re-entry.
But why is re-entry technology so important?
(Kor) "Re-entry is what allows a nuclear warhead
to withstand extreme heat and pressure when passing through the Earth's atmosphere.
Without it, the missile would not be able to drop nuclear weapons onto its target area.
That's why it's so important."
The expert added that there are two possible scenarios for the future.
One, North Korea doesn't succeed in its re-entry technology next year, in which case they will
continue testing ICBMs.
But the second scenario is what's drawing the most attention.
If they do succeed, they will most likely seek disarmament talks with the United States.
(Kor) "North Korea will most likely demand to be
recognized as a nuclear state and to keep a certain level of nuclear technology, in
exchange for limiting their ICBM capabilities, enough to attack neighboring countries."
The expert added that the timeline in which this would happen could vary from a few months
to a few years.
But it is only a matter of time.
And when that time comes, the U.S. and the regime's neighboring countries such as South
Korea and Japan must decide on how to respond to North Korea's request to be recognized
as a nuclear state.
Lee Jeong-yeon, Arirang News
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