Hey there.
The Turkish economy is in crisis, and its a great example of how dumb markets can be.
Things have been bad for a while but they got a whole lot worse on Monday May 14th.
President Erdogan announced that he intended to take a larger role in determining interest
rates after he wins this week's election.
And the currency tanked.
When I moved to Turkey in 2011 you could buy a dollar for about one and a half lira, and
today it takes almost 5.
The currency is only one of many problems with Turkey.
It's current account deficit is about 5%.
This means that the economy is tremendously reliant on foreign funding.
This was OK in the easy money years after the 2008 financial crisis, but interest rates
are finally rising in the US and Europe, making foreign money more expensive.Turkish businesses
rely on foreign money to keep operating, and its becoming increasingly clear that many
of them cant pay the money back.
Foreign investors are getting spooked by Erdogan's progressively more Authoritarian government
and the aggressive statements he makes on everything from the currency to his partners
in NATO.
Making it even worse, The Turkish economy is over reliant on massive construction projects
that are largely funded by foreign money as well.
Basically the whole Turkish economy is a house of cards that may finally be about to tip
over.
But there's a weird thing about this.
None of this is new.
Almost everything I mentioned above has been true for five years now.
And folks in the international business community have been aware of the problems with the Turkish
economy for years before that.
But the Turkish economy has managed to tick along regardless, occasionally even putting
up some decent growth numbers.
It's kind of a zombie economy.
The Turkish economy has been tremendously resilient because of that confidence issue
I have been talking about in recent videos.
The world's investors know that the Turkish economy is in terrible trouble.
The Turkish people do not.
Erdogan's government and his allies now control at least 80% of Turkey's media outlets.
If you pick up a Turkish newspaper it's still mostly good news all the time.
When economic problems are mentioned they are blamed on sinister foreign powers.
In the early days of Erdogan s government, back in the 2000s, his government actually
did a pretty good job managing the economy, and now that they have consolidated power,
they won't let anybody talk about how badly they have screwed things up.
To be sure, Turkey's business people, and anybody who can read English, know that there's
a crisis coming, but the bulk of Turkey's people don't know that.
They feel richer than they have ever been, and that's building another large problem.
The average Turk has been convinced to take on an obscene amount of individual debt.
Consumer debt is one of the main reasons the economy has kept ticking over.
The Turkish people are confident that Erdogan will continue to deliver the goods so they
are spending money they dont have.
This has helped stave off the crisis.
The Turkish economy kept growing, so foreign lenders kept on lending money, even though
they knew they shouldn't.
Of course this also means that when the crash comes, it will be so much worse than it would
have been had it happened five years ago.
Confidence is a powerful thing.
The Turkish people's confidence in Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been desperately misplaced.
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