IT TOOK UNTIL THIS MORNING FOR US TO BE ABLE TO SAY FOR
SURE, ACTUALLY A LITTLE BIT LATER THAN THE MORNING ON THE
PACIFIC, THAT WE CAN DEFINITIVELY SAY THAT CONOR
LAMB, THE DEMOCRAT, HAS BEATEN THE REPUBLICAN, RICK SACCONE IN
PENNSYLVANIA'S 18TH DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION.
IT WAS A
NAILBITER, AND WENT UNTIL VERY LATE TODAY, AND WE ENDED THE
ELECTION DAY WITH THEM WITHIN 1000 VOTES OF EACH OTHER, BUT
YOU CAN SEE IN THIS CHART, THE FINAL BREAKDOWN OF THE VOTE --
YOU WILL SEE THAT CONOR LAMB IS AT 49.8% OF THE VOTE TO
SACCONE'S 49.6%.
TWO THINGS ARE INTERESTING ABOUT THAT, ONE IS
THAT THAT'S ALMOST NOTHING, WHICH REMINDS US THAT OUR VOTES
DO COUNT, WE NEED TO VOTE AND ORGANIZE AND REGISTER BECAUSE
THAT IS SO IMPORTANT, SECONDLY THAT IS FAR LOWER THAN THE VOTES
OF DREW MILLER, THE LIBERTARIAN, WHO I SAW TWEETED YESTERDAY THAT
HE'S ON THE BRINK OF BECOMING THE MOST HATED MAN BY
REPUBLICANS IN THE COUNTRY.
AGAIN WE DON'T KNOW THAT IF THEY
HADN'T VOTED FOR DREW MILLER THEY WOULD HAVE VOTED FOR
SACCONE, BUT PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HAVE.
HOW
TO TELL BECAUSE THOSE BORDERS ARE NOW IN A SACCONE OF SILENCE.
UGH.
I'LL BE HERE ALL WEEK.
DO YOU HAVE TO BE?
THAT'S THE QUESTION ALL OF AMERICA IS ASKING.
IT'S NOT THE
LIBERTARIAN.
EVERY TIME, IT'S THE THIRD PARTY!
I KNOW, I'M JUST SAYING HE TWEETED THAT, THAT'S WHY THOUGHT
IT WAS WORTHY OF MENTION.
LESSONS LEARNED HERE -- BUT BEFORE WE GET TO THAT, A QUICK
SIDE NOTE FROM ME, I WOULD DO A RECOUNT.
IN THIS CASE I'M
THRILLED THAT LAMB WON INSTEAD OF SACCONE, LAMB IS NOT VERY
PROGRESSIVE SO I'M NOT THRILLED ON THAT COUNT, BUT I WOULD MUCH
RATHER HAVE LAMB THAN SACCONE WHO IS FAMOUS FOR SAYING HE WAS
TRUMP BEFORE TRUMP WAS TRUMP, SO I HAVE NO INTEREST IN THAT DUDE.
BUT I'M VERY HAPPY THAT LAMB WON, BUT IN CLOSE ELECTIONS, I
KNOW IT COSTS A LITTLE MONEY BUT I NEVER THINK IT'S A BIG DEAL TO
DO A RECOUNT.
EVERYONE IS ALWAYS LIKE, OH MY GOD, RECOUNT, IT'S
OUTRAGEOUS -- IT'S NOT OUTRAGEOUS, IF IT'S WITHIN 1% IT
SHOULD BE STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE, IN THE CASE OF
PENNSYLVANIA IT IS NOT, SO THERE WON'T BE A RECOUNT, I'M HAPPY
ABOUT THE OUTCOME TODAY BUT ON ANOTHER DAY I MIGHT NOT BE.
BUT
ANYWAY, IN TERMS OF LESSONS LEARNED EVERYONE WILL JUST
INTERPRET IT FOR THEIR OWN ADVANTAGE.
NO!
OF COURSE!
THE ESTABLISHMENT DEMOCRATS HAVE A GOOD CASE,
LET'S KEEP IT REAL, THEY SAY ONE MORE AS REPUBLICAN LITE AND
CONOR LAMB IN SOME WAYS DID, EMPHASIZED THAT HE WAS PRO-GUNS,
HE WAS PRO-LIFE, BUT HE WOULD VOTE PRO-CHOICE -- SPLITTING THE
BABY IF YOU WILL -- THAT ANALOGY IN THAT CASE.
DO WE KNOW IF THAT WORKS?
I DON'T THINK IT DOES, BUT TODAY SINCE HE WON AND IT WAS A
DISTRICT TRUMP HAD WON BY 20 POINTS EVERY ESTABLISHMENT
DEMOCRATS IN WASHINGTON WILL BE SCREAMING AT WORKS!
YOU SEE, IT
JUST WORKED! AND I'M GIVING THE DEVIL HIS DUE, THEY HAVE A CASE
TO MAKE IN THE CASE OF CONOR LAMB BECAUSE HE RAN A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT AND IT WASN'T A DISASTER, IN FACT IT WENT WELL.
NOW, LET'S SET THE CONTEXT HERE.
DEMOCRATS OVERALL, SINCE TRUMP'S
ELECTION, HAVE BEEN BEATING THE SPREAD BY 16 POINTS.
LET'S BRING UP THE GRAPHIC WHAT WE TALK ABOUT THIS.
WE'LL BRING UP THE GRAPHIC TO GIVE YOU A SENSE OF THIS.
IN
LAMB'S CASE, TO GIVE HIM FURTHER CREDIT, HE BEAT THE SPREAD BY 22
POINTS AS YOU SEE AT THE BOTTOM.
THE AVERAGE IS 16, HE WON BY 22,
THAT IS SIX MORE.
FIRST OF ALL, LET'S AGAIN DO AN IMPORTANT SIDE
NOTE TO SAY HOW SCREWED THE REPUBLICANS ARE, THOSE ARE
DEVASTATING NUMBERS FOR THE REPUBLICANS.
UTAH IS OKAY.
BUT SOUTH CAROLINA ISN'T, KANSAS ISN'T, MONTANA ISN'T.
23 POINTS AND KANSAS.
ALABAMA ISN'T.
THAT IS CRAZY.
THOSE ARE GIANT NUMBERS AGAINST REPUBLICANS, IF THOSE
HOLD IN THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS DEMOCRATS WILL PICK UP ANYWHERE
FROM I'VE SEEN ESTIMATES FROM 30 TO 50 SEATS, BUT 30 OR 40 IS THE
MOST COMMON RANGE.
THEY ONLY NEED NOW WITH LAMB WINNING 23
MORE SEATS TO BE THE MAJORITY IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.
NOW, I JUST GAVE YOU THE ESTABLISHMENT CASE FOR CONOR
LAMB, HE RAN TO THE RIGHT ON THOSE ISSUES -- ON THE OTHER
HAND, WHEN YOU ASK CONOR LAMB AND YOU TRACK HIM, YES HE SAID
ALL THOSE THINGS, BUT WHAT WAS THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE HE RAN ON?
PROTECTING SOCIAL SECURITY, MEDICARE, AND MEDICAID.
THAT'S
AS PROGRESSIVE AS IT GETS.
I KNOW A LOT OF POLITICIANS
PRETEND TO BE PROGRESSIVE DURING AN ELECTION, EVEN TRUMP
PRETENDED TO BE PROGRESSIVE ON THAT ISSUE AND LATER PROPOSED TO
CUT MEDICARE AND OBVIOUSLY DEVASTATED MEDICAID.
BUT TRUMP
WOULD SAY I'M NOT LIKE A STANDARD REPUBLICAN, I WILL
NEVER TOUCH THOSE THINGS.
WHY?
THE COUNTRY, ESPECIALLY ON THOSE
ISSUES, ARE OVERWHELMINGLY PROGRESSIVE.
SO THE NUMBER ONE
ISSUE HE RAN ON WAS ONE THAT WE AGREE WITH, WE SHOULD INCREASE
SOCIAL SECURITY, PROTECT MEDICARE, AND EXPAND IT IN FACT
TO COVER EVERYONE, ETC., SO THERE IS A CASE TO BE MADE ON
BOTH SIDES HERE.
THAT'S WHAT HE WAS RUNNING ON, I BELIEVE, I DON'T HAVE ALL
THE ARTICLES IN FRONT OF ME ANYMORE, I BELIEVE IF YOU ASK
THE POPULATION WHAT WERE THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES, I THINK
THE HIGHEST ONE MIGHT'VE BEEN HEALTHCARE.
AND IF YOU BREAK IT
DOWN, HE WON I THINK ABOUT TWO THIRDS OF THE VOTE ON
HEALTHCARE.
AND LOOK, ANY CHANGE TO THIS ELECTION COULD HAVE
FLIPPED IT THE OTHER WAY, SO HE WON TWO THIRDS BY SAYING THE
STANDARD THING, THE ACA IS GREAT, WE SHOULD EXPAND IT, ALL
THAT STUFF, BUT IMAGINE IF HE WAS STRONGER ON THAT ISSUE.
HE
WON TWO THIRDS, WHAT IF HE WON 75%?
IT WOULDN'T EVEN HAVE BEEN
CLOSE.
AND THE PEOPLE LIKE THE ACA AND EXPANSION MAY BE
SOMETHING THAT COVERED EVERYONE AND CONTROL COSTS, THIS MIGHT
NOT HAVE BEEN A NAILBITER.
WE COULD HAVE WRAPPED THIS UP AT 8
O'CLOCK EASTERN TIME LAST NIGHT.
BUT I WANT TO GO BACK TO THE SECOND BIGGEST ISSUE HE RAN ON,
AND THIS IS BASED ON WHAT HIS CAMPAIGN SAYS, THE SECOND
BIGGEST ISSUE WAS PROTECTING THE UNIONS.
ALSO A DEEPLY
PROGRESSIVE ISSUE.
BRENT WELDER IN KANSAS'S THIRD DISTRICT IS
CRUSHING THE CURRENT REPUBLICAN OPPONENT INCUMBENT BY ABOUT
SEVEN POINTS WITH NOT ANYWHERE NEAR THE MONEY THAT KEVIN YODER
HAS IN THAT DISTRICT, HE IS A UNION LAWYER.
HE WAS A UNION
LAWYER.
CORPORATE DEMOCRATS TELL US ALL THE TIME, UNIONS,
TEACHERS UNION -- NO.
A LOT OF TIMES THEY TAKE UNION MONEY, BUT
LIKE OBAMA WHEN IT CAME TO PROTECTING UNIONS AND THEIR
RIGHTS, ALL OF A SUDDEN HE COULDN'T FIND HIS WALKING BOOTS.
CARD CHECK, NOT GOING TO DO IT.
BUT WHEN IT COMES TO WINNING
ELECTIONS ALL OF A SUDDEN THEY ARE PROGRESSIVES.
EVEN
REPUBLICANS, A REPUBLICAN CONSULTANT SAID THE PROBLEM WITH
RICK SACCONE SAID HE WASN'T UNION ENOUGH.
THAT'S A
PARTICULARLY UNION DISTRICT, PENNSYLVANIA'S 18TH, BUT THAT'S
A HELL OF A THING WHEN REPUBLICANS SAY WE SHOULD HAVE
SUPPORTED THE UNIONS MORE.
SO TAKE THAT INTO CONSIDERATION AS WELL.
I'M NOT A POLITICAL CONSULTANT, I'M NOT AN EXPERT,
MAYBE I DON'T KNOW NOTHING - BUT IF IT HELPS YOU TO WIN AN
ELECTION BY BEING PROUNION AROUND THE ELECTION, HOW MUCH
MORE COULD IT HELP YOU WIN THE ELECTION IF YOU ARE ALWAYS
PROUNION AND YOU DEMONSTRATE IT THROUGHOUT YOUR TERM?
SEEMS LIKE
YOU COULD CLINCH A LOT OF ELECTIONS THAT WAY BUT AGAIN I'M
NOT AN EXPERT.
ONE LAST THING, WE BROKE DOWN THE 16 POINT
AVERAGE SPREAD IN THE SPECIAL ELECTIONS, THIS IS SOMETHING I
TALKED ABOUT EARLIER, AND IT'S -- YOU DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH YOU
CAN INTERPRET FROM A FEW SPECIAL ELECTIONS, IT'S STILL A LONG WAY
OUT, DOES IT REALLY MEAN ANYTHING?
LET'S BRING UP THIS
FINAL CHART, THIS IS THE HISTORIC CHANGE BETWEEN SPECIAL
ELECTION AVERAGE AMOUNTS AND THE ACTUAL VOTE ONCE YOU GET TO THE
GENERAL ELECTION, AND YOU SEE THERE THAT IT CAN BE OFF BY A
LITTLE BIT, BUT NOT BY THAT MUCH.
IT ISN'T OFF BY 16 POINTS,
OR 20 POINTS, OR WHATEVER.
SO WHAT YOU SEE THERE IS THAT THIS
IS PROBABLY INDICATIVE OF SOMETHING PRETTY SERIOUS LATER
ON THIS YEAR.
AND THIS COULD OBVIOUSLY AFFECT RACES LIKE TED
CRUZ, HIS REELECTION EFFORT -- BUT LAST NIGHT, THAT WAS A +20
TRUMP DISTRICT.
IF YOU START LOOKING AT THE PEOPLE IN THE
HOUSE THAT ARE IN LESS THAN A +20 TRUMP DISTRICT, YOU HAVE
DEVIN NUNES, YOU HAVE PAUL RYAN -- I BELIEVE HIS WAS FOUR
POINTS.
YOU THINK PAUL RYAN CAN OVERCOME THAT?
SPEAKING OF UNIONS, IRON STACHE IS RUNNING AGAINST
PAUL RYAN IN THAT DISTRICT.
WE ARE GOING TO TAKE OUT THE
SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE.
REPUBLICANS, YOU DON'T WANT TO
TAKE IT SERIOUSLY?
WONDERFUL, FANTASTIC.
AND I LOVED THEIR
EXCUSES THIS MORNING.
MY FAVORITE WAS, THERE ARE TWO
GREAT ONES, SUBSTANTIVELY THE BEST ONE WAS LAMB OUTRAISED
SACCONE HE RAISED MORE MONEY.
YES, BUT YOU ARE LEAVING OUT THE
INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURES, SACCONE BECAUSE OF ALL THE DARK
MONEY AND THE SUPER PACS OUTSPENT LAMB AND LOST ANYWAY.
SO WHERE IS YOUR MONEY EXCUSE?
AND THE LEADER OF THE
REPUBLICANS IN THE HOUSE FOR THE REELECTION EFFORTS SAID THIS
SENDS A MESSAGE, IT'S A WAKE-UP CALL.
AND I WAS LIKE, GOOD, AT
LEAST THEY GET IT.
THEN HE SAID WE HAVE TO RAISE MORE MONEY!
NO,
YOU MISSED IT ENTIRELY BUT MY FAVORITE EXCUSE WAS ONE
REPUBLICAN BLAMED IT ON SACCONE'S PORN STACHE.
HE SAID
HIS MUSTACHE WAS DISGUSTING AND THAT'S WHY HE LOST.
HE'S GOT A POINT.
WONDERFUL.
RAISE MORE MONEY FROM BILLIONAIRE DONORS AND
MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS AND BIG BANKS AND REST ON YOUR
LAURELS, THEN WE WILL FIND OUT IN NOVEMBER IF THAT 20 POINT
SWING IS REAL OR NOT.
I HAVE TO SAY I THINK THE BEST ONE WAS ON FOX AND FRIENDS
WHEN BRIAN KILMEADE AGREED WITH ONE OF THE OTHER HOSTS AND HE
SAID YOU KNOW WHAT?
CUTENESS MATTERS, CONOR LAMB WAS CUTE.
MAYBE IT DOES MATTER BUT TRUMP WAS STILL ABLE TO WIN, IT DON'T
MATTER THAT MUCH.
KILMEADE IS RIGHT, I THINK REPUBLICANS SHOULD JUST PICK
CUTER CANDIDATES.
PROBLEM SOLVED.
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