[TITLE & MUSIC]
Hi there smart drivers. Rick with Smart Drive Test talking to you today about
autonomous vehicles--self-driving vehicles and why these are not going to
take over a roadway anytime in the 21st century. I got six reasons why they're
not going to overtake our roadways. Now just before we get started here, be sure
to hit that subscribe button just about there. That way you'll get access to all
of the great information for those of you working towards a license or
starting your career is a truck or bus driver. As well, be sure to hit that "bell."
That way you'll get instant notification. Now autonomous vehicles have been made
famous by Tesla and Elon Musk who is the public figure and the billionaire who
started the compan...and his team, And as well, social media... the
media in general have promoted that autonomous vehicles are going to
appear on our roadways and very soon. When in fact, they're probably not going
to appear on our roadways anytime in the 21st century. I had a few smart drivers on
the shifting theory video say that taxi drivers, bus drivers, and truck drivers
very soon we're going to be out of business. As well, I've had a lot of smart
drivers ask me why big trucks do not have automatic transmissions in them and
why they still have non-synchromesh-- what's called as crash box
transmissions--and then why they're so difficult to drive. Well technology--the
limitation of technology--and the sheer forces involved in moving huge amounts
of weight in big trucks--some of them up to as much as 140 thousand pounds or
sixty three thousand five hundred kilograms. So they're big, heavy and there
are lots and lots of forces there. And you need some very durable technology in
place in order to be able to move that kind of mass. Autonomous vehicles - two
questions I'm gonna ask you about autonomous vehicles. The first question
I'm gonna ask you is: when was the last time you rebooted your computer
restarted your computer to get it to work? Was it a week ago, a month ago, or a
few months ago. Answer that question... just have a think about that. The second
question I'm going to ask you is, if an autonomous vehicle showed up outside
your doorway, would you get in that vehicle and let it take you for a two or
three hour drive. Just ask yourself that question
while we're getting going here and we'll be back to give you the six reasons why
autonomous vehicles are not going to take over our roadways anytime in the
twenty-first century. So stick around, and be right back.
[INTRO & MUSIC
they're smart drivers welcome back Rick with smart drive test talking to you
today about six reasons why autonomous vehicles are not going to take over our
roadways in the 21st century the first reason is the simple complexity of
driving and when I that's an oxymoron when I say the simple complexity of
driving because driving is probably the most complex tasks that we do on a daily
basis Harold Smith who is the originator of the idea of the Smith's space cushion
system which is the basis of defensive driving that he formulated that seventy
years ago and that still forms the basis of defensive driving and is the guiding
principles for any driver education course that teaches defensive driving
Harold Smith came up with the idea of the Smith's prescription system and
stated in that that we as drivers make a hundred decisions per kilometre or per
mile of driving so the decision-making process and the processing of
information as we're driving is highly complex highly dynamic and ongoing so
the complexity of driving the best analogy that I ever saw in terms of
describing the complexity of driving was in the VicRoads on the road to solo
driving which is their driving manual they're in the state of Victoria in
Australia and they come up with this analogy between sports and driving now
if I asked you the question of whether sports is dynamic or whether sports is
static most of us myself included when I was first asked this question would say
that sports in fact he is dynamic however if you take a closer look at
sports and look at the field of sports regardless of whether you're playing
hockey you're playing football you're playing netball or whatever sport you're
playing the field or the court is the same dimensions all the time so if
you're playing basketball you're playing on the same court the lines are in the
same place there so the distances between the lines is the same for that
sport same with hockey same with gridiron football or whatever sport
yours playing the field is the same all of the time the players who are playing
the sport are all approximately the same age
they're the same gender they have the same ability so all the players are the
same the equipment that they use is the same they all have the same equipment if
they're playing gridiron football for example they all have helmets on they
all have shoulder pads and knee pads and other types of protective equipment that
they're using to play the game they play the game at the same time every day and
for the most part if they're playing footie in Australia or you're playing
soccer or you're playing gridiron football the seasons are the same every
year you play it at the same time of year so the lighting conditions are
going to be the same all of the time and then the objective of the players is the
same to score a goal now if you look at that in terms of driving the task of
driving is that the playing field that drivers are driving on is not the same
you can start at your house on a residential Road drive out onto a
two-lane roadway that's 60 kilometers an hour 40 miles an hour and then be out on
a highway within a few short minutes and driving on a roadway that can be 80
kilometers an hour 100 kilometers an hour 50-100 miles an hour so the playing
environment for driving is different the people who are driving are all different
ages and abilities in their driving many of them will have physical disabilities
that will limit their ability to drive and those types of things they're all
driving with different types of vehicles Road user can be pedestrians cyclists
scooter people on scooters motorcycles cars trucks buses big trucks trams and
trolleys all those types of things so the equipment that we're using on our
roadways varies vastly the ability of the players we can drive at any time of
the day 24 hours in the dark and the light glaring Sun pouring rain driving
snow all of those types of things in weather is going to have a huge impact
on our ability to drive and then finally the the objective of the drivers is not
the same as the sports players the objective of drivers can be anything
they're going anywhere they're going to the grocery store they're going to see
their friends they're going to church or whatnot so the objective of the draw
ours is different so you can see that there's some a good analogy there which
describes how dynamic driving is and how complicated that task of driving is and
how much it requires us to be able to make decisions ongoing as we're driving
all the time and to process that information that's coming in and not all
of the information for driving is visual information only about 90% of it there's
another bit of that information that is listening to the vehicle and feeling the
vehicle smelling different environments and
those types of things that also are information that is relevant to driving
so our computer is going to be able to do that in terms of autonomous vehicles
in the simple complexity of driving the second reason that autonomous vehicles
are not going to overtake our roadways anytime soon is technology the sheer
amount of R&D that is going on in terms of developing technology to pilot these
vehicles is astronomical and probably the leader of the technology to build
autonomous vehicles is Google and the Google cars which have driven hundreds
of millions of miles accident-free now the question that I ask is how much how
many support personnel are sitting in the background making sure that those
vehicles are going where they're supposed to be going or is it simply the
software and computer engineering that is allowing that vehicle to go forward
and in terms of technology one of the factors is the size of the technology
you see that large dome on top of the Google car and the lind ours it's called
which allows a 360° scan of its environment that is a huge piece of
technology now are you going to be able to take that technology and shrink it
down so that it's in the vehicle and makes the vehicle look attractive like a
sports vehicle like a high-end premium car that people are going to buy and
want to buy or they want that big dome on the top of their vehicle people are
not going to be attracted to that kind of technology so somehow the technology
the sensor technology that you need to pilot vehicles autonomously up and down
the road is going to have to become have to be
able to be in a size that they can hide it in the vehicle and it's not really
readily apparent or the shape of vehicles is going to have to change
dramatically so that is one aspect of the technology the other aspect of the
technology is how does this technology navigate these vehicles do we have some
sort of guiding strip in the roadway some of the preliminary sensors detect
road markings what if the road marking is off did they used Global Positioning
satellites and as we know Global Positioning satellites even in this day
and age are only accurate to about two meters in most places and when you're
driving sometimes satellites and the tracking and the piloting of the vehicle
has to be within inches or centimeters it cannot be within two meters because
if you're within two meters you're going to have a crash so how do we how does
the technology move these vehicles and pilot these vehicles up and down the
roadway and finally the other question about technology and whether it's going
to be able to move the vehicle up and down the roadway is digitized map scan
these use digital maps in order to navigate the vehicles up and down the
roadway and as it says an article by will night yes the article was written
four years ago but it's still relevant today's technology in the fact of
keeping digital maps up to date the world is ever-changing we're changing
roads we're building new structures and those types of things the monumental
task of keeping those digital maps up-to-date to pilot these autonomous
vehicles up and down the roadway cannot be underestimated so the technology the
size of the technology and then bringing the technology down to a size that you
can fit it into a modern autonomous vehicle and make it attractive to the
consumer and make it affordable to the consumer so that the consumer will want
to buy the vehicle and allow it to go up and down the roadway is another limiting
factor and just going back to the complexity of driving I know some of you
are going to mention blue the computer a few years ago maybe a couple of decades
now that was able to be able to beat and match the top chess players in the world
and again I come back to the analogy that I used in reason number one of the
complexity of driving is again chess is on a board and the movements of the
chess players of the chess pieces rather is static and open to mathematical
calculation and is very cut and dry and of course there aren't any risk of life
in terms of playing chess so the computer technology and the ability of
computers to reach a level of art artificial intelligence that somewhat
simulates our brain and our ability to make decisions at an ongoing pace is
going to be one of the limiting factors in terms of autonomous vehicles becoming
available to mass consumerism the third reason why autonomous vehicles are not
going to be overtaking our roadways anytime soon is ergonomic sand this
organ Amin that Joshua Brown was killed on the seventh of May in 2016 in the
state of Florida driving his Tesla car now what happened is is that the sensors
on the Tesla car became confused by the bright sunlight glaring off the side of
a white semi-trailer and the vehicle drove into the side of the trailer
unfortunately killing Joshua Brown he was the first fatality in an autonomous
vehicle crash and there was an investigation which exonerated the Tesla
company in the fact that there were no less than six warnings for Joshua Brown
to take over this raises a very serious question in terms of the technology of
autonomous vehicles the interaction between humans and machines which is
called a ergonomics it's our interaction between machines which makes them easier
for us to use makes them user friendly and as well makes them safe so is the
technology going to be safe now the first generation of autonomous vehicles
is going to require the attention of the driver now don't get me wrong in terms
of all of this that I'm talking about that they are coming anytime soon I'm
all for autonomous vehicles I want an autonomous vehicle I want a vehicle that
I can go out and get into and I can read a book or talk on the phone or have a
conversation with somebody else you know in the movies the way it
in the movies I would love to be able to do that however this first generation of
autonomous vehicles when somebody has to interact with the vehicle and take over
if the sensors become overwhelmed or the computer cannot deal with the traffic
situation that is being presented to it how long does it take that driver him or
her to come back into that complex driving situation you have to assess the
situation and you have to determine what action to take in a very small space of
time sometimes a fraction of a second is the sensors and the technology in the
vehicle going to be able to give you enough warning that you're going to be
able to come back assess the situation and take appropriate action to interact
with that vehicle and that in right now is probably the biggest barrier to
autonomous vehicles being on our roadways and being allowed on our
roadways that issue of ergonomics and the interaction between human beings and
the autonomous vehicle in the autonomous vehicle not being able to handle the
situation and the human being or the driver having to come back into it and
take over and make a safe decision and make a strategic move that is going to
potentially save their life and other road users lives and that as far as I'm
concerned is probably the biggest barrier to autonomous vehicles not
becoming widespread any time soon reason number four of why autonomous vehicles
are not going to take our roadways over anytime soon is the issue of ethics and
the issue of ethics was explored in the movie I Robot starring Will Smith which
also had autonomous vehicles in it but it wasn't the autonomous vehicle that
made an ethical decision in the movie I Robot the ethical decision was there was
a crash on a bridge involving Will Smith's vehicle and the another vehicle
containing a little girl and the robot in the movie saved Will Smith made
calculations about the chances for survival in the event of the crash
didn't say the little girl and saved Will Smith while he lived with that
guilt that the robot did not save the little girl when it is that's the
ethical choice that it should have made as opposed to saving him
he felt bad about their and carried that guilt and that guilt influenced his
decisions and his feelings about the robots in the movie even though he was a
cop so it's an interesting movie so have a look at it but it comes back to
autonomous vehicles if there's going to be a crash and there will be crashes
because it's traffic and it's motor vehicles and there's always crashes
there are 33,000 people a year killed in the United States of America due to
traffic crashes and it's exponentially more than that who are injured in
traffic crashes so there are going to be crashes and the ethical decision making
process of this computer technology is it going to decide for example if it's
cut if the vehicle is coming through an intersection and a child steps off the
curb into the path of the vehicle is that vehicle going to choose to run over
the child or sideswipe the vehicle beside it these are the ethical
decisions and ethical decision making processes that need to be considered
with these computers that are guiding autonomous vehicles and this is going to
come to the fore because all the choices that these computers need to make in
order to safely navigate a vehicle down the roadway need to be programmed into
the software in addition these ethical decisions that are going to be debated
for years and years and years to come how do you teach a computer to make an
ethical choice between a small child and sideswiping another vehicle where there
probably won't be any injuries or fatalities in that sort of a crash
because sites wave crashes are very usually very low casualties and very low
injuries but again there are many variables that go into that and it's a
dynamic situation and things could change the vehicle could hit a curb or a
Smit barrier or flip over or something that then you do have fatalities in the
crash so there's a ethical decisions as well that need to go into this and these
really tough questions need to be answered and until these really tough
questions are answered autonomous vehicles probably are going to be
delayed being available for mass consumerism the fifth reason that
autonomous vehicles aren't going to be taking over our roadways anytime soon is
the social protest the protest of those heavily vested in the current
infrastructure of drivers in cars and the you know people who want to buy
these vehicles the manufacturing the oil companies and all this huge
infrastructure for those of you who know me and have been following some of my
videos know that my doctorate thesis looked at the transition of horse-drawn
traffic to motor traffic so you're looking at the transition from one huge
transportation infrastructure of the horse to another transportation system
of the motorcar and there were huge battles that went on between those two
infrastructures for the transition from one to the other because it wasn't a
simple transition and you think of cars with drivers in them to an autonomous
vehicle infrastructure and the will Knight who wrote the MIT article he
talks about that a little bit he talks about Google as being the forerunner in
autonomous vehicles but the fact that that Google doesn't have any experience
in building automobiles so how do they build automobiles when they're a online
search engine company that does online advertising how do they go from that to
building cars so you have this huge social protest that's going to be in
place not so much protest but you're going to have a resistance and in terms
of that social protest you're gonna have hackers are gonna hack into the software
and that is going to be one of the other huge factors that's going to prevent the
moving forward of autonomous vehicles and just on an example of that in the
early 19th century in England when the steam engine came in it was applied to
the loom which was manufacturing textiles and our clothing and those
types of things when the steam engine came in the steam engine was attached to
these power looms and one person with a steam engine loom could now do the work
of 300 workers you had the creation of the Luddites who would break into
textile plants and destroy these steam engines because they were being put out
of work so if we have autonomous vehicles coming in and you now have taxi
drivers and bus drivers and truck drivers and other
people who deliver services and goods and freight as part of their job what is
the social protest what is the pushback on that because these people are no
longer employed because of what autonomous vehicles are overtaking their
jobs and again terrorism hackers those types of things these are all questions
and barriers that have to be answered in terms of autonomous vehicles how are we
going to replace those jobs how we're going to put those people to keep
working so we have the social protest aspect and the transition from one huge
automotive infrastructure to another huge automotive infrastructure that is
going to see a lot of people being displaced a lot of people being put out
of work and one more point about the social protest is the traditionalists
those of us who like driving we like driving cars we don't want to get in an
autonomous vehicle we want to get in a vehicle we want to have control of the
vehicle and we want to drive it so that is another aspect of why autonomous
vehicles aren't going to be taking our roadways over anytime soon the last
reason that autonomous vehicles are not going to be overtaking our roadways
anytime soon I've alluded to this earlier but it's the cost of the
technology in the cost of developing an enormous infrastructure to build create
teach new drivers how to operate autonomous vehicles and having you know
if they're going to be electric cars we need to have more electric hookup
outlets where we can recharge our vehicles and those types of things so in
terms of creating the technology and making the technology smaller how much
is that going to cost as I alluded to earlier in the video the Lindner on the
top of the Google car that piece of technology costs eighty thousand dollars
well for most of us that that is ten times more what we're willing to pay for
an automobile currently so how long is it going to take the technology to come
down in price as well again the aesthetics of the motor vehicles what is
the vehicle going to look like with all of these sensors and those types of
things in it and what is the cost of making those smaller and making them
readily of for mass consumerism is that even a
possibility that we can that the engineers automotive engineers software
engineers and everyone else who is involved in the development of this
technology is is it ever going to be feasible to create an entire
infrastructure with autonomous vehicles and the other thing the question becomes
in terms of cost if the price of a motor vehicle goes up to sixty or seventy
thousand dollars that is probably right on the sort of high-water mark of the
amount of money that we as consumers are willing to pay for an automobile and
then the thing is is that we say ok it's an autonomous vehicle and it's $60,000
are we just willing to drive our own vehicles and say listen you know I can
pick this one up for 20 or 25,000 or 30,000 dollars and I'm gonna drive that
motor vehicle so these are the other questions and the last one it always
comes down to the cost of the vehicle how much is the cost of the vehicle and
does the cost of the vehicle outweigh the benefits are the benefits of having
an autonomous vehicle going to be worth the cost of having it and they talk
about this is that we're going to have increased fuel economy because the
vehicles are going to be able to follow closer together and they're going to get
better fuel economy we're going to reduce congestion in large cities and
those types of things I really don't think that the technology is even close
to beginning to have the benefits of all of that that they're projecting for
autonomous vehicles that they're going to reduce traffic congestion they're
going to reduce pollution they're going to have a smaller smaller environmental
footprint and the fact that they're going to increase the economy of
vehicles and those types of things and what are these vehicles even going to be
powered by are they're going to be petrol engines in another twenty or
thirty years are we still going to be drilling for oil and those types of
things so the last factor of why autonomous
vehicles are not going to be taking over our roadways anytime soon is the cost
and the cost versus the benefits and due mass consumers do the general public do
we want these autonomous vehicles or we do want to continue to drive our own
vehicles so that's the last reason why autonomous vehicles won't be taking over
our roadways anytime soon quick review of why autonomous
vehicles will not be overtaking our roadways anytime the first reason was
the complexity of driving the sheer number of decisions that need to be made
by drivers and as well in the article by will Knight the MIT article he was
talking about being in a cab in Europe and the driver who said to him that the
reason the taxi drivers were so good was the $0.07
that heightened awareness of being able to determine traffic patterns and the
actions of other road users on the roadway as you're driving and it's kind
of like any professional who does something all the time drivers who work
for a living have a higher sense and ability to predict traffic patterns and
the actions of other road users so that's the first reason why autonomous
vehicles are not going to overtake our roadways any time soon the second reason
is technology just developing the technology and getting the technology to
a point where it's not huge and cumbersome and compromises the aesthetic
value of Motor Vehicles because most of us do really like the lines of fast
sports car and what that looks like in high-end cars and those types of things
so getting the technology to a point where not only is it small enough to fit
into motor vehicles but also makes the motor vehicle look good and is reliable
and can actually do the task of piloting the vehicle in traffic not just on
highways but in our urban environments as well the third one is ergonomic s'
the interaction between the driver and the vehicle and whether the technology
is going to be advanced enough that the driver doesn't have to come back into
the driving task and take over and try to save him or him or herself and to
save other road users on the roadway then there's the ethical issue of these
computers in these vehicles and when traffic crashes occur what is the
ethical dilemma that these computers what is this decision that they're going
to make and if you haven't seen iRobot already definitely have a look at that
because it addresses that ethical issue that these autonomous vehicles are going
to have to address to be available to mass consumerism and then as well the
social protest the traditionalists who want to drive
their own vehicles and don't actually want autonomous vehicles the cost of the
motor vehicle that's another reason is the cost of this technology and is it
going to outweigh the benefits of having self-driving vehicles or are we just
going to be more beneficial with people who work as taxi drivers work as bus
drivers or truck drivers does that out does that benefit outweigh the cost in
other words is it cheaper to pay people to drive vehicles or the cost of the
technology for autonomous vehicles is it really going to have all of the benefits
that they say it's going to have of reducing congestion in urban areas
reducing the environmental footprint that vehicles currently have and as well
increasing fuel economy the other question of autonomous vehicles and
vehicles in the future in general is is what is the power source that we are
going to use are we still going to be driving petrol engines engines that burn
gasoline and diesel fuel in another 20 30 40 years and I know that the media is
touting electricity is the new environmental fuel source for cars but
the problem is is that somehow electricity has to be generated here in
North America or one of the few countries in the world that actually
generates electricity from hydroelectric dams where we're using the power of
water to generate electricity a lot of companies in our countries in the world
still burn coal to generate electricity so that is not really a viable
environmental alternative to petrol engines because we can make petrol
engines more efficient I thoroughly convinced that we in fact can make
petrol engines more efficient but electricity is not the viable
alternative that we're looking for in terms of a power source to reduce the
environmental footprint of motor vehicles so the social protest component
consists of people who are going to lose their jobs because of autonomous
vehicles as well people who are resistant to the technology and are
going to hack the software in these autonomous vehicles and present a form
of terrorism that has to be dealt with in terms of autonomous vehicles because
when that happens when we get people who are hacking the technology the same as
the Luddites in the early 19th century who broke in to see
factories and destroyed the equipment you get hackers hacking into the
software and people are dying it makes it so that it's not reliable and people
don't feel safe and when people don't feel safe they're not going to buy the
technology so that's the last one of the one of the biggest barriers one of the
bigger barriers to autonomous vehicles not overtaking our roadways question for
my smart drivers do you think that autonomous vehicles are going to come to
our roadways sooner than the 22nd century leave a comment down in the
comment section there all of that helps out the new drivers and you know adds to
the discussion here about autonomous vehicles because personally I'm all for
autonomous vehicles but I do want them to be safe before I get in one so leave
a comment down in the comment section there would be interesting to hear what
you have to say about autonomous vehicles if you like what you see here
share subscribe leave a comment down in the comment section as well hit that
thumbs up button check out all the videos here on the channel if you're
working towards a license or starting your career as a truck or bus driver as
well head over to the smart drive test website awesome information over there
and tremendous online courses that you can purchase all of the courses at the
smart drive test website are guaranteed a pass your road test first time or your
money back 30 day guaranteed I'm Rick with smart drive test thanks very much
for watching good luck on your road test and remember pick the best answer not
necessarily the right answer have a great day
I know and then the second reason is second
reason is
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