North Korean provocations.
We've grown somewhat numb to them here in the nation, but noticeable strides made in
missile technology has more citizens down South fearing the worst.
Pyongyang decared it completed its weapons development after their latest ICBM launch.
For the second part of our year-end special, Oh Jung-hee has a wrap-up of the regime's
nuclear and missile upgrade through 2017.
This year, North Korea conducted one nuclear test and 15 missile tests, firing 20 missiles
in total.
That's fewer tests than last year... but this year's provocations were bolder and more daring...
in that the regime continuously tested upgraded missiles... which are now deemed to be capable
of striking anywhere in the United States.
Among the missiles Pyongyang fired in 2016, the ones with longest ranges were the intermediate-range
Musudan ballistic missiles.
These can fly up to 3000 kilometers,... putting the U.S. territory of Guam within reach.
But these missiles weren't considered a big threat... as only one out of the eight Musudan
tests was successful.
This year, the regime started firing missiles with longer ranges.
Intermediate range Hwasong-12 missiles fired in August and September passed over Japan.
ICBM-level Hwasong-14 missiles in July... which were launched at a lofted angle,...
reached altitudes of 28-hundred and 32-hundred kilometers,... and the latest Hwasong-15 reached
an even higher altitude of over 44-hundred kilometers.
The higher the altitude, the longer the missile range.
If fired at a normal trajectory,... the Hwasong-15 is believed to be able to fly up to 13 or
14-thousand kilometers.
(Korean) "The Hwasong-15 ICBM can carry a super-sized
nuclear warhead and strike the whole United States.
It's the DPRK's most powerful ICBM and meets the DPRK's goal of completing the rocket weapons
development."
[ -15 ... .]
But still unanswered are two questions: has North Korea developed the technology to miniaturize
a nuclear warhead... and can its missiles successfully re-enter the Earth's atmosphere.
The ideal weight of a nuclear warhead designed for an ICBM is seen to be around the 500-kilogram
range.
But some experts say... if the engine is strong enough, the warhead may not have to be made
any lighter.
(Korean) "I've conducted a virtual simulation after
the Hwasong-15 launch... and even if we assume the warhead's weight as 700 to 800 kilograms,
it appears the missile can fly up to 10-thousand to 12-thousand kilometers.
This would mean that the North has lightened its nuclear warhead to a sufficient level
for itself."
[700-800 10000 12000 . , 15 . .]
Missile re-entry is another crucial part.
When an ICBM re-enters the atmosphere,... it has to protect the nuclear bomb inside
from frictional heat of 7000 to 8000 degrees Celsius.... as well as massive pressure and
vibrations.
Whether the North has achieved this technology is not clear... but pundits say,... Pyongyang
was still aiming to test the technology through the latest Hwasong-15 launch.
(Korean) "The North decided not to fire its missile
to fly over Japan,... because if it does, then it can't check whether the missile successfully
re-entered the atmosphere as it doesn't have a satellite.
But if the missile falls in the East Sea, then the regime can check the missile re-entry
using radar."
[ . .]
Having declared the completion of its nuclear weapons program,... will the reclusive regime
continue with its provocations?
Analysts say the North could possibly halt its provocations... at least temporarily -- until
after PyeongChang Winter Olympics -- and turn toward a peaceful dialogue with the surrounding
countries.
But if that fails,... the North could conduct further ICBM... and even submarine-launched
ballistic missile tests... and a seventh nuclear test to develop an even lighter nuclear warhead.
(Korean) "What the North calls a "completion" is actually
about 90-percent complete, not a hundred-percent.
There're more stages Pyongyang has to go through to diversify its missiles and actually deploy
them.
The North could also go on to develop solid-fuel missiles... and SLBMs."
[ , 90 100 . // . ... // , SLBM ]
Next week, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will make his New Year's speech.
And there's a lot of interest on... whether he'll use the speech to officially declare
North Korea as a nuclear state... and hint at the possibility of starting negotiations
with the United States.
Oh Jung-hee, Arirang News.
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