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Sunil, stock markets scaled new highs even as notes of caution are coming from the West. What can we expect next week?
Most of the week's rally has been due to short covering after the banning of participatory notes
Growth has been slowing down in the economy. The IIP numbers are showing paltry industrial growth.
The ground reality of the GST rollout is showing some disruption in the supply chain
The goods are not moving as quickly and orders are getting delayed
While I remain bullish in the long term on the India story, but in the short term I believe the market has run ahead of fundamentals
In the short term, we see some correction coming in
Next week there is options expiration. The market was in the red on Friday and this trend should continue next week
In the next month or so, time is ripe for a good correction
The correction will present opportunity in investing in fantastic stocks
A quick word on IT stocks, especially after the results declared by TCS and Infosys this week
IT companies are themselves admitting that when there is a gigantic change in their business model, there is bound to be some pain
There is going to be a lot of pain going forward
There is definitely stress on IT companies and their model is broken
The model is moving towards cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the lay-offs are increasing
Rise in IT stocks this week has been purely due to short covering
TCS results are disappointing and Infosys results are marginally better
Other IT companies will declare results and I think it will take IT companies to mend their business model
The generics story is not over for Indian pharma companies but there is another problem
The ANDA approvals are increasing. The US government is trying to bring down the cost of drugs by hastening the process of approvals
There could be a price war among generic companies and there could be price erosion
So, pharma story looks good since it has been beaten down dramatically
On a relative basis, it is much better than other players like NBFCs which have rich valuations
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