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Welcome friends to another edition of economic update a weekly program devoted
to the economic dimensions of our lives, our jobs, our incomes, our debts, the
interest rates we pay, the foreign trade that affects us, all of that.
I'm your host Richard Wolff I've been a professor of economics all my adult life
and I hope that that has prepared me well to present this overview of recent
economic events, and why they matter. Well, let me begin as I often have to do by
talking a little bit about something that's being said about the economy but
that isn't really true and there's an awful lot of that after the tax cuts
that were rammed through the Congress by the Republicans and by President Trump
at the end of last year there were a bevy of press releases in which
companies some of them quite well known announced that they were going to share
the benefit of having their tax rate reduced from 35 percent to 21 percent by
giving their workers bonuses or wage increases a lot of publicity they got
for doing that that might be less than what you would need to get a mention on
my program but then President Trump, both publicly before he went to Davos
Switzerland for the World Economic Forum, and while he was there, talked about it
as well in glowing terms of the sharing of the benefit of the tax cuts so they
wouldn't just go as most people know they did to corporations and the rich
but would in fact make everybody better off well
nice story to tell is it true and from the best we can tell it's not even close
let me explain the Bloomberg financial news service which is certainly on the
side of corporations in the rich did some research
and reported on it it went to talk with a human relations firm or Human
Resources firm it's sometimes called Willis towers and Watson and they did a
survey they asked 333 employers who were in each case where employers of a
thousand workers or more what they plan to do with the tax cut revenues newly
available to them after the Republicans and Trump cut the taxes here were the
results four percent of the firm's said they had already done an increase in
either the wages or the bonuses three percent said they plan to do it next
year okay you with me four percent have done it three percent say they're
planning to do it but let's be give them the benefit of the doubt thirteen
percent say said they were considering doing it the other 80% of the firms
interviewed said they neither did nor planned any wage increases for their
workers ever next year or in the future having to do with this tax cut let me
read to you the Bloomberg financial news articles conclusion about the impact of
the tax cut on wages and this is contained in their January 26 release
quote at this rate it's too early to tell what the trickle-down impact of the
bill will be if any the bonus and wage increases provided to employees have so
far been a fraction of the savings companies are seeing from the tax bill
it will take years to determine the full impacts of the bill economists say end
of quotation. Here's the economics if you cut the taxes of corporations from 35
percent to 21 percent, that's a 40% cut in the taxes,
you are saving billions and billions of dollars for America's corporations they
are free because that's what a free enterprise system means they are free to
do with the money they don't have to pay in taxes anymore whatever they want they
are not required to pay it out in wages or salaries in bonuses in benefits to
their workers they are free to take it and build up the dividends they pay the
shareholders increase the salaries they pay the top executives invest abroad or
sit on the money they are free and what the interviews have shown us and what
the real research has shown us is that claims from the President on down that
this has produced a significant trickle-down effect in rising wages and
bonuses is not true the second update for today has to do with another
activity taken by President Trump and the Republican Party with great fanfare
over the recent days they have imposed tariffs
on a variety of products thereby demonstrating according to them that
they are committed to what the campaign promised building up American
manufacturing jobs building up the number of jobs in general by making it
harder for foreigners to ship their products into the United States
let me explain and let me again correct the untruth that's involved here first
so we're all on the same page a tariff is just a special word for a tax here's
how it works a product produced abroad when it crosses the border inside into
the United States for sale here is subjected to a tax
tax on an imported good is called the tariff that's all and the president
imposed tariffs on washing machines and solar panels later in this program we'll
explore what the implications are for solar panels in particular and for us as
people living in a society that is getting more and more energy from solar
sources here I aren't only to talk about what a tariff in general does it hurts
the sale of products produced abroad in the United States why because the price
has gone up why because there's now a tax this
tariff it's called on that product so that whatever it costs to produce and
ship the product here has added on to it this new tariff this new tax well here's
the problem the idea behind this is if the price of imported goods goes up
because of the tariff we as consumers in the United States will buy less of those
imported goods and shift our business to produce goods here in the United States
because they are not subject to a tariff because they're not imported into the
country they're made here that's the idea it's a nice simple idea but the
complex reality makes it into a bad joke let me explain the Chinese who are in a
way the targets they're not the only targets but the main target of these
things the Chinese do indeed export many things to the United States and so they
are sales of their goods in the United States will be hurt by the tariff but
now the complexity many of the goods produced in China that are exported to
the United States are themselves goods that have imports into China in them in
other words the Chinese use imported products to produce what they then sell
to the United States and here the punchline they buy those goods that
they import into China from the United States and from other countries that use
goods produced in the United States so guess what if you hurt the sales of
Chinese goods into the United States with a tariff you're also gonna hurt the
Americans who are producing those goods that are imports into China to make
those Goods that they then export to us to ignore that is to show that you don't
understand how global trade works second thing to consider the Chinese are not
passive they are a powerful country they happen to be the largest creditor of the
United States which is the world's biggest debtor country they have lots of
cards to play one of the things the Chinese can do and
it's typically done in these situations is to put tariffs on goods made in the
United States and shipped to China tit for tat and if the Chinese do that
Americans will lose jobs in those industries that produce goods sold in
China because the effect of a tariff imposed by China on us is the exact
parallel to the effect of a tariff we imposed on the Chinese goods I could go
on but the bottom line here is simple the effect of a tariff on jobs in
America is uncertain unknown and could just as well be negative as positive
what that means is that Mr. Trump's pronouncements and the Republican
Party's enthusiastic endorsements of these announcements are so much
political theater they will have very little impact over the net years of
playing out their implications on jobs in America and if there's retaliation by
the Chinese and if there are 47 other things that
happen in the world over the next two or three years they will not improve or
increase jobs in the United States and claiming otherwise is to put a nice word
on it lying the next set of updates have to do with the economics of universities
and I'm talking about things that are happening in many parts of the world
but the particular examples I draw on come from the United Kingdom Britain and
the United States let me begin with the United Kingdom what's going on in
British universities is in a way a foretaste of what is coming down the
pike for universities elsewhere in the Western world including in the United
States these days. As the capitalist system shifts its centers from Western
Europe North America and Japan to the new places where it is becoming the
ascendant system China India Brazil and so on the question in the West Western
Europe North America Japan is who's gonna have to suffer the consequences of
capitalism going where the profits are highest and leaving those places where
it was born and grew up and everybody's busy trying to make sure the cost of the
adjustment is on somebody else here's how the British are doing it they are
changing the pensions they used to provide to teachers in the Universities
used to be said this is a secure job focus yourself on being a good teacher
that's what you're here for we will pay you a living wage a salary
and it will include putting aside money for a pension that you can live on when
you retire that's being changed the pensions are no longer they're going to
be a commitment to give you a living out flow when you need to retire they're
gonna be no longer defined benefit pensions they're going to be instead
defined contribution pensions will set aside some
money it'll be invested in the stock market
and you better pray that the stock market is going up when you need that
money and not going the other way the response of teachers in Britain has been
outrage there are 14 days of strikes planned for the month of February 2018
by the University and College Union which says the changes proposed by the
government could cost teachers over two hundred thousand pounds sterling
that's better than a quarter of a million dollars staff at 68 universities
voted as to whether or not to go on strike 61 out of 68 universities voted
strongly in favor of the action 88% voted in favor of strikes 93% for action
short of strikes by the way higher education in Britain is a public
activity it is subsidized by the government is much cheaper than in the
United States but those professors are fighting against having the burden of a
capitalism that is in decline put on them and of course through savaging the
teachers pensions on the students here in the United States I'm gonna give two
examples one from Harvard University and one from Johns Hopkins University in
Baltimore Harvard University and in the interests of full disclosure I should
mention that I am a graduate of that particular institution Harvard
University has now become subject as a number of other universities have to a
new tax part of the bill to change taxes that passed in December of 2017 Harvard
is now going to have to pay 1.4 percent yes you heard that right
1.4 percent on the invest an income it earns the dividends the
interest from the tens of billions of dollars it has in its endowment and
other funds Harvard thereby no longer can evade income taxes as it has done
for 300 years and Harvard is not happy about what it complains about the 1.4
percent tax on its income let me remind you most americans pay many many many
times larger taxes on their incomes then Harvard is required to do this is a tiny
tax on Harvard after 300 years of paying no taxes on his income at all
what does Harvard do well the statement of the university carried in Harvard
magazine in the last month of December the last month of 2017 complained
bitterly about I quote now revenue hungry politicians oh goodness
the same politicians often the same individuals who gave them tax exemption
for 300 years have now morphed into revenue hungry politicians instead of
great leaders which is how they were referred to in the past revenue hungry
politicians they didn't get that label when they subjected the social social
security income of America's elderly to an income tax a few years ago about
which millions of elderly complained but Harvard didn't know no Harvard is doing
exactly what people who have much more justification do complain about the
taxes they have to pay and try not to remember what it is their taxes pay for
you know the roads and highways and the college education and the hospital
supports that we rely on as I said society no it's all about revenue hungry
politicians shame on Harvard they just want other people to pay taxes in the
future the way other people carried the tax burden for Harvard over the last 300
years the next update concerns Johns Hopkins University but it's a different
story but it's an interesting economic story Johns Hopkins University announced
last week that it got a gift of 75 million dollars from William H Miller
the Third a famous stock picker an investor on Wall Street and why did the
investor on Wall Street give 75 million dollars dr. Johns
Hopkins that after all isn't so unusual but what is unusual is he gave it to the
philosophy department Wow philosophy departments are usually the
last ones to get any kind of money from anybody turns out that the stock picker
understands that what he does pick stocks like so much in the world really
depends more on your basic philosophy of life then on all that technical stuff
you're supposed to learn in school he wants to develop philosophy interesting
and may suggest a new appreciation for the humanities coming to American
universities and none too soon, Before I go on, I want to remind you that we
maintain two websites rdwolff, with two Fs, dot com and democracyatwork, that's all
one word, democracyatwork.info. Please make use of these websites to
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of you that are listening and might want to watch this program as a television
program which it is we urge you to go to
patreon, P-A-T-R-E-O-N, patreon.com/economicupdate and there you can see this
program as a television program whenever it suits your schedule. I want to return
for a moment to the tariffs that Mr. Trump trumpeted so loudly in the
previous weeks the key one was on solar panels why would the president pick out
solar panels well I've already given you part of the answer because it looks like
he is being tough with the Chinese it might then interest you to know that
what mr. Trump was doing was following up on a recommendation of a commission
that had heard the complaints of two companies that produce solar panels here
in the United States who don't want to have to compete against the much cheaper
solar panels that come from China actually cheaper ones also come from
Germany and these two companies who produce here in the United States had
complained and Mr. Trump was basically coming down on their side putting a
tariff on imported solar panels so that what could happen the other domestic
producer could raise the price because they no longer have competition from
cheap imports here's what you might like to know excuse me the two major
companies Suniva and Solar World that produce in the United States Suniva is
owned by the Chinese and the solar world is owned by the Germans in other words
we have some companies going to war to make profits against other companies and
asking the government to side in their favor that's what's really going on here
it has very little to do with jobs and to drive the point home Mr. Obama tried
tariffs back in 2012 and he promised to get our manufacturing sector going it
didn't work the manufacturing sector shrank and Mr. Trump is following in
footsteps we know didn't work last time number three you might want to know that
the Chinese have already for several years seeing this coming moved
production of their solar panels out of China into lower wage areas in Vietnam
Malaysia and elsewhere precisely so that the tariffs put on them will coincide
with falling prices because they have cheaper wages to pay thereby nullifying
the effect in terms of losing business for them in other words it's not gonna
work and China is already talking about retaliation and we even know where the
Chinese are looking they might buy for their e exploding international jet air
traffic they've the said they may switch to the Airbus a European jet producer
from Boeing the American one they may cut back i phone and US auto sales they
are cutting back on soybean and maize imports you get the picture retaliation
is serious and real and then what what'll happen to the jobs in those
sectors that can't send their output to China anymore and then there's a little
history to remind people trade wars have often been the first step in what
eventually became hot wars military wars what you can't solve by manipulating
trade you try to solve with weapons it's a bad road that often ends badly for a
publicity hound president and a party trying to posture for the mass of
Americans it sounds like tough measures taken but it's political theater of the
cheapest sort economics indicates it's mostly nonsense and it should be
understood for what it is my last comment my last update for today
is about a poet a writer her name halle-loo Guin she's one of the most
appreciated and celebrated science fiction writers in the history of that
kind of writing and particularly in the history of
American science fiction she died very recently at the age of 88 why am I
talking about her passing it's not just that she was a great writer this is a
course in economics it's that infused in all of her writings was a demand and a
commitment for a different economic system in the world today she described
her goals in writing her science fiction as making an effort to help change the
economic system we live in right now and that's why she's important and I want to
mark her passing by reading two statements she made to you toward the
end of her life the first was her speech at the National Book Awards in November
of 2014 she received the US National Book Foundation's Media Award for
distinguished contribution to American letters here is what she said upon
getting this award quote we live in capitalism its power seems inescapable
but so did the Divine Right of Kings any human power can be resisted and changed
by human beings resistance and change often begin in art and very often in our
art the art of words that tells you what she devoted her art to the second
statement was a statement she made at a speech at the commencement of Bryn Mawr
College in Pennsylvania this was a speech she gave in 1986 quote when women
speak truly they speak subversively they can't help it if you're underneath if
you're kept down you break out you subvert we
our volcanoes when we women offer our experience as our truth as human truth
all the maps change there are new mountains that's what I want to hear you
erupting you young Mount Saint Helena 's who don't know the power in you I want
to hear you well Ursula Le Guin added her own words to what she wanted to hear
she was a powerful artist in part because she spoke to an economic system
that needs the criticism of all of us and is particularly indebted to the
criticism of a great artist like Ursula look when we've come to the end of the
first half of economic update please stay with us for the second half which
will involve an interview that I think you will find especially interesting
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