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The electric car company's newest vehicle was set to go to its first 30 customers Friday evening. Its $35,000 starting price - half the cost of Tesla's previous models
and 215-mile range could bring hundreds of thousands of customers into the automaker's fold, taking it from a niche luxury brand to the mainstream.
Those higher sales could finally make Tesla profitable and accelerate its plans for future products like SUVs and pickup s. Or the Model 3 could dash Tesla's dreams.
Potential customers could lose faith if Tesla doesn't meet its aggressive production schedule, or if the cars have quality problems that strain Tesla's small service network.
The compact Model 3 may not entice a market that's increasingly shifting to SUVs, including all-electric SUVs from Audi and others that go on sale soon.
Limits on the $7,500 U.S. tax credit for electric cars could also hurt demand. Once an automaker sells 200,000 electric cars in the U.S., the credit phases out.
Tesla has already sold more than 126,000 vehicles since 2008, according to estimates by WardsAuto, so not everyone who buys a Model 3 will be eligible.
"There are more reasons to think that it won't be successful than it will," says Karl Brauer, the executive publisher for Cox Automotive, which owns Autotrader.
In 2006 - three years after the company was founded - CEO Elon Musk said Tesla would eventually build "affordably priced family cars" after establishing itself with high-end vehicles like the Model S, which starts at $69,500.
Tesla started taking reservations for the Model 3 in March 2016. Within a month, 373,000 customers had put down $1,000 refundable deposits.
Since then, Tesla has refused to say how many people have reserved a Model 3, but its website says people making reservations now should expect to get their cars in the middle of 2018.
Musk said earlier this month Tesla should be making 20,000 Model 3s per month by December; that's half the number of his previous estimates.
Musk aims to make 500,000 vehicles next year at Tesla's Fremont factory, a number that could help Tesla finally make money.
The company has only had two profitable quarters since it went public in 2010. But even at that pace, Tesla will remain a small player. Toyota Motor Corp. made more than 10 million vehicles last year.
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