good afternoon thank you for coming for my presentation this afternoon
can I have a show of hands how many of you follow my blog or read my book so I
assume the people that don't put up the hands are sitting here for the $50
shopping voucher right how many people actually watched my videos in my youtube
channel because I'm used to talking to a group of people like 40 30 people in a
workshop or a group of people over here but I have a problem of talking to a
single eye camera and talking to the air I solved this problem by borrowing the
dog of my neighbor who would sit there patiently and listen to my presentation
and it won't look down and play with the handphone so my videos are getting
better these days when is the best time to buy I thought I already answer this
question in my podcast so why are you still here do you remember my podcast
youtube channel podcast number 10 when open price becomes oversupply I talked
about when is the best time to buy what did I talk about I'm talking about
because of the hot weather and because of the heavy rainfall that caused oversupply
of durians in Malaysia this summer and because of the Chinese businessmen
buying up plantations of durians in Malaysia and because of the local
farmers who change the crops to durians for a better margin the supply of durians
in Malaysia increased three times because of this oversupply and then
the vendors cannot sell the durians in time so if they cannot clear it they half
the price right and then they either give it away or sell it at dirt cheap
prices so when is a good time to buy we have the same situation over here wait
for the right weather to come when the economy is bad
the developers also buy up the sites at record prices so they have to maximize
the margin and maximize the yield by pricing the properties at premium prices
so we have to wait till the demand cannot meet the supply and then we go
and buy and we buy when there is oversupply and the economy is bad the
second thing is you need wait for the proper bumper crop year when oversupply
floods the market URA data shows that there's actually 47,000 units in
the supply pipelines and 22,000 new units that are launched but not sold so
we wait for the accumulation of all the units over the years so the bumper crop
year for private residential units should be at 2021 to 2022
because they're the two years that's going to have a TOP of 10.5 thousand
and 14.5 thousand units per year so how many new units can we sell
in a year they said it's going to be 8,000 to 10,000 this year so they
definitely cannot absorb all the units the bumper crop year will be 2021
to 2022 the third thing is you wait for the vendors who can't clear their stocks in time
and have to slash prices so unlike durians from Thailand the Mao Shan Wang from
Malaysia the vendors cannot keep for too long so if the vendors cannot clear all the
durians they have to slash prices give it up for free that's the same
situation for developers they have to clear all the unsold units within
five years after the planning approval otherwise they need to pay absd the
same thing if the remaining units cannot be sold two years after TOP they have
to pay extension charges on top of that they also have to
pay interest to the banks and have to meet the deadlines
and the challenge and face all the expiring of all the bank loans, the bonds and all the
debts so that's the time you need to buy you help them when they need money the
most when is the best time to buy actually to buy or not to buy that is not the
question you and I we are property buyers and investors of course we have
to buy but the keyword over here is not to buy the keyword here is best time
the CDL executive chairman Mr Kwek said his biggest concern is a lot of people
they're thinking property prices are going to go down
they adopt a wait and see attitude and if things are settled he's afraid it's
too late for anybody to pick up the properties at reasonable prices so he advised
people not to follow the herb instinct but I want to tell Mr Kwek
don't worry Mr Kwek we Singaporeans will only follow the herb to buy we
never follow the herb not to buy these days even though you'll be able to
gather 9,000 people together at the preview launch we only managed to sell
slightly about 10% of the units in the first weekend launch this is a far
cry from last time when we managed to sell 80 to 90% of units in the launch
weekend sales is down but morale cannot be down so that's why the next
week by default the media articles will come
up something like we still managed to have strong interest in the project
because there's pending demand we prove resilience in the market because we are
not afraid of the cooling measures so when is the best time to buy we're
talking about best time over here so time we said timing is the keyword
so your property agent may tell you that it is impossible to time the market yes we
cannot time the market but you also cannot be too good if you don't know
when is the worst time to do something so
everything in this world have a worse time to do right it doesn't mean that you
have to you can only buy when there's blood all over the streets we don't have
to wait till so but you have to understand that you cannot buy at the
wrong time when you're not supposed to buy what does that mean I'm going to
give you some examples over here but every time I try to give example for
example I talk about Iskandar property talk about Forest City I
talk about Bangkok properties talk about new launch projects I talk about
people buying wrong thing at the wrong time and also all the gimmicks of the new launch
and all the gimmicks that property agencies use to sell overseas properties there
would be people sending me email saying that hey you know I make all the
mistakes that you mentioned in your post so I'm sorry about it
so to avoid this scenario from happening over here this presentation I'm
going to talk about examples of myself I talk myself about myself only I'm not
talking about you don't worry okay what do we mean by wrong timing how do I know
it's going to be the worst relationship in my love life when I know that I
finally managed to leave my ex but the guy I really love come and tell me that
sorry I don't want to wait for you anymore
because I'm going to marry somebody tomorrow how do I know that it's going
to be the worst purchase experience of me when I know that I have saved for few
months to buy my pair of salvatore ferragamo shoes but two weeks later at
takashimaya they have a warehouse sale and then all the branded shoes are
going at 50% discount how do I know that that's going to be the worst investment
so far when I finally decided to cut loss and dump my equities because
they're non performing but the next day suddenly the prices of the stock go up
and they keep going higher and higher how do I know that I buy the wrong
property at the wrong time it's because I queued the whole evening to buy
the not so ready to launch new launch on July the 5th and then I just
snapped up any unit from there but a month later the developers secretly sell
the units at discount and that the discount level keeps going higher and higher
you may say that this is not about timing bad timing
this is talking about bad luck Vina you're lucky because you bought all your
properties at the bottom of the market it's just about luck but I'm telling you
here that I put in twice the efforts to make sure that I won't get that
kind of bad luck in my investment and I also be triple cautious to make sure
that I am not getting more big regrets in my life so this is all about timing
right now the prices are high and choices are limited and then you may go for
eight to ten flat viewings and units are more or less the same
so you just anyhow buy but the next day there's economic downturn or financial
crisis but the developers keep pushing new projects to the market until there's
severe imbalance of supply and demand in the market
so the government is saying that it doesn't want to see the market crash but
the developers are the ones in deep troubles why would the government care
they already sold the land size at record prices right and the government already
collected all the buyer stamp duties additional buyer stamp duties the development charges so they
don't care if developers cannot clear all the units within five years
pay ABSD lah so it doesn't matter to them at all but the developers are saying if
we go bankrupt we cannot repay the banks dear UOB
DBS and OCBC last time we jump you jump we are now in the same boat if we sink
you sink so the government is thinking like that ah okay I withdraw all the cooling
measures and now I introduce stimulating measures what are still stimulating measures
if you are too young to understand that please go back to 2002 and 2004 to look at all
the government announcements about stimulating measures because it's going to
happen again so anyway with all these stimulating
measures the buyers are not moved because they're saying that I'm not sure whether
I still have a job or my business is still not doing very well how can i buy
prices are so cheap you also want to buy but you cannot buy why because you
cannot sell your property because you have a eighty percent loan to value from
the bank last time so your outstanding loan is still higher than the current
value of your property because prices have dropped more than 20 percent
right so in technical terms this is called negative equity
you are holding a negative asset by right
the bank has the right to ask you to pay back the difference between the current
value of the property and your outstanding loan in cash but to avoid
too many repossessed properties the bank offers to help
to restructure your loan so last time you have limited choices prices are high
you buy a not so perfect property because your settled for less now
prices are low and choices are aplenty but you cannot buy I always believe that
all the relationship problems they are only under two major curses it is
你爱的人, 你得不到, 你不爱的人, 你甩不到 what it means is in english
the person you love you can't have the person you don't love you can leave so in
property terms what does that mean the property you like you can't buy the
property you don't like you can't sell this is what we call opportunity cost
in property purchase
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